At 250Km the Olympic road race will be one of most interesting events on the Olympic calender.
The standout favourite is Mark Cavendish. If the peleton finishes in a bunch sprint on the Mall, it would be hard to bet against Mark Cavendish.
The box hill circuit 9* 15Km circuits include a substantial amount of climbing 9*130 metres. This roughly translates to one medium Alpine Pass. The average gradient is 5%, with some touching 6%.
The peleton will definitely start dropping riders on these numerous ascents. The big question is how much will Cavendish be dropped on the 5% gradient? His form from the Tour de France is good. After being a strict diet all year, he’s specifically worked on losing weight and limiting his losses on the climbs.
After the last box hill circuit, there is 45KM of flat on the way back to the Mall in London.
The big question is whether Team GB (Bradley Wiggins, Ian Stannard, Dave Millar and Chris Froome, have the ability to bring any breakaway back in those last 45Km. I reckon a breakaway would need a lead of 3-4 minutes at the top of Box Hill, if all the GB riders are still there.
However, in the Olympic road race, anything can happen. It’s less predictable than a tour de France stages. Teams are smaller, it’s everything on one day.
In the World road race Championships 2011, GB managed to control the race from start to finish, but then they had nine riders in the team. Five is much harder, though with 4 Tour de France stage winners, plus 1st and 2nd Overall – it’s hard to get a stronger team.
Great Britain may also be helped by Germany. They will feel there best prospect is the sprinter Andy Griepel, who is in great form – with 3 Tour de France stages, and has already beaten Cavendish this year. If any sprinter can beat Cavendish, it would be Griepel.
Other countries, will definitely not want to wait for a sprint finish, so they will be looking to form a strong breakaway on the Box hill circuits.
Could A Breakaway Succeed?
If the breakaway is sufficiently strong and organised, it definitely is possible. There may be an unofficial – anti Cavendish alliance. It depends who gets in the break, and how willing they are to work across teams.
Breakaway riders could include Boasson Hagen (Norway), Tom Boonen and Philippe Gilbert (Belgium), Niki Terpstra (Netherlands), Alejandro Valverde and Luis Leon Sanchez (Spain), Nicolas Roche and Dan Martin (Ireland), Fabian Cancellara, (Switzerland), Sylvain Chavanel (France) Vincenzo Nibali (Italy) and Peter Sagan (Czech).
Will it Be Cavendish’s day?
Back in 2008, Cavendish was the only member of the GB team to come away from the Olympics without a medal. He was in Madison with a tired Bradley Wiggins I’m sure he hasn’t forgotten that. This is his biggest focus of his year. From a domestic (British) point of view, this could be the highlight of his career, there will never be so much attention on one bike race. As Cavendish said before the last stage on the Champs Elysees – just please give me a bunch sprint…
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‘The big question is whether Team GB (Bradley Wiggins, Ian Stannard, Dave Millar and Chris Froome, have the ability to bring any breakaway back in those last 45Km.’ I just wanted to repeat that list of ultimate strength in depth!
I can see Froome going with a breakaway to keep an eye on it, then staying there and going for the win. I just don’t trust the guy after that TdF incident. Pretty sure it will be our 5 (4??) men vs The Rest of the World. The same will apply on the track with the madison. If we win we will doubly deserve it.